Qhov kev poob qis no yuav txuas ntxiv mus, feem ntau yog vim muaj kev thov tsawg dua, cov nqi khoom siv raw qis dua thiab kev muab khoom txaus. #kev ntsuas dua tshiab
Txij li thaum pib lub quarter thib plaub los, cov nqi PE, PP, PS, PVC thiab PET tseem poob qis txij li lub Xya Hli, vim yog kev thov qeeb, kev muab khoom txaus, cov nqi khoom siv raw poob qis thiab kev tsis paub tseeb hauv kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb. Hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm polyethylene thiab polypropylene, kev siv lub peev xwm tshiab tseem ceeb yog lwm yam, thaum cov nqi sib tw ntawm cov khoom xa tuaj yog qhov teeb meem rau PET thiab tej zaum polystyrene.
Nov yog lub tswv yim ntawm Michael Greenberg, Tus Kws Pab Tswv Yim Txog Kev Yuav Khoom ntawm Resin Technology, Inc. (RTi), Tus Kws Tshawb Fawb Qib Siab ntawm PetroChemWire (PCW), CEO ntawm The Plastics Exchange, thiab Scott Newell, EVP Polyolefins ntawm tus neeg faib khoom resin thiab compounder Spartan Polymers.
Txawm hais tias cov neeg muag khoom polyethylene tshaj tawm tias tus nqi nce ntawm 5-7 xees ib phaus thaum lub Cuaj Hlis-Lub Kaum Hli, tus nqi polyethylene poob tsawg kawg yog 4 xees txog 6 xees ib phaus thaum Lub Yim Hli thiab xav tias yuav poob ntxiv rau lub Cuaj Hlis, David Barry hais. . PCW Tus Thawj Coj Pabcuam ntawm Polyethylene, Polystyrene, thiab Polystyrene Robin Chesshire, RTi Tus Lwm Thawj Coj ntawm Polyethylene, Polystyrene, thiab Nylon-6 Markets, thiab Greenberg ntawm Plastics Exchange. Hloov chaw, cov peev txheej no feem ntau ntseeg tias tus nqi yuav poob me ntsis thaum Lub Kaum Hli thiab lub hlis no.
RTi's Chesshire tau hais tias qhov kev thov rau polyethylene tseem muaj zog rau feem ntau ntawm lub xyoo, tab sis thaum kawg ntawm lub Cuaj Hli nws tau poob qis hauv feem ntau ntawm cov lag luam. PCW's Barry tau hais tias cov nqi khoom siv raw qis dua, tsis muaj cim qhia tias kev thov nce ntxiv thiab qhov qhib ntawm lub peev xwm tshiab loj los ntawm Shell yuav tsis thawb cov nqi siab dua. Nws kuj tau hais tias cov nqi polyethylene qhov chaw poob 4 xees rau 7 xees ib phaus txij li lub Cuaj Hli: "Kev thov xa khoom tseem tsis muaj zog, cov tub luam muaj cov khoom muag ntau, thiab muaj kev tsis paub meej txog kev txav mus los ntawm tus nqi hauv lub hlis tom ntej. tsis tshua tuav vim tias cov neeg siv khoom xav tias yuav txo tus nqi mus tom ntej."
Cov peev txheej kuj tau sau tseg tias cov neeg muag khoom tau txo qis kev tsim khoom. Thaum Lub Kaum Hli, Greenberg tau piav qhia txog kev ua lag luam tam sim ntawd: "Feem ntau cov neeg ua haujlwm tseem yuav cov resin tsuas yog raws li qhov xav tau, thiab qee cov neeg ua haujlwm pib yuav ntau cov resin thaum tus nqi zoo, txawm hais tias cov neeg siv khoom xav tau hauv ntau lub lag luam downstream tau qeeb vim yog kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam. Kev txhawj xeeb txog kev nce nqi Cov neeg tsim khoom thiab lwm cov neeg muag khoom resin loj tseem pheej thuam cov nqi qis thaum qhov sib txawv bearish rov qab, ua ke nrog cov lej ua haujlwm qis dua thiab cov nqi siab dua hauv Asia, ntawm qhov kev xav tias qhov no tau pab txhim kho kev thov hauv tsev raws li qee tus neeg yuav khoom tau qhia kev txhawj xeeb txog cov txiaj ntsig poob. cov khoom lag luam loj thiab cov nqi pheej yig."
Cov nqi Polypropylene poob 1 xees/lb thaum Lub Yim Hli, thaum cov nqi propylene monomer nce 2 xees/lb, tab sis cov nqi ntawm cov neeg muag khoom poob 3 xees. Raws li Barry ntawm PCW, Newell ntawm Spartan Polymers thiab The Plastic Exchange, cov nqi rau lub Cuaj Hli rau polypropylene poob tag nrho 8 xees ib phaus, cov nqi daws teeb meem rau cov ntawv cog lus monomer poob 5 xees ib phaus, thiab cov neeg muag khoom poob lwm 3 xees vim yog cov nqi qis dua. lb. Greenberg. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov peev txheej no ntseeg tias cov nqi yuav poob qis dua hauv Lub Kaum Hli, thaum cov nqi tsis tau hloov pauv lossis txawm tias txo qis lub hlis no.
Barry pom tias yuav muaj kev poob qis ob npaug hauv lub Kaum Hli, vim tias qhov kev thov tsawg thiab kev muab khoom ntau dhau. Raws li lub hlis no, nws pom tias yuav muaj kev poob qis ntxiv thaum Exxon Mobil tsim lub Hoobkas polypropylene tshiab thiab Heartland Polymer nce kev tsim khoom ntawm nws lub Hoobkas tshiab. Newell xav tias cov nqi propylene monomer yuav poob 5 xees txog 8 xees ib phaus vim tias cov nqi thoob ntiaj teb qis dua. Nws muaj kev pheej hmoo tias yuav muaj kev poob qis ntxiv hauv kev ua lag luam. Nws tau hais tias cov neeg muab khoom polypropylene yuav txiav kev tsim khoom vim muaj £ 175m ntxiv hauv Lub Xya Hli-Lub Yim Hli thaum qhov kev thov poob qis. Tus naj npawb ntawm cov hnub xa khoom tau nce mus txog 40 hnub hauv lub Cuaj Hli piv rau 30-31 hnub ib txwm muaj hauv kev ua lag luam sib npaug. Cov peev txheej no qhia txog kev txo nqi ntawm 10 txog 20 xees ib phaus piv rau cov nqi ua lag luam.
Greenberg piav qhia txog kev lag luam PP qeeb vim tias qhov kev thov tsis muaj zog txuas ntxiv mus txog rau lub Kaum Hli thiab hais tias qhov no yog vim kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb qeeb, kev tsis paub tseeb txog kev lag luam luv luv, kev tsim cov resin ntau dhau thiab cov neeg yuav khoom siv lawv cov leeg nqaij hauv kev sib tham. "Yog tias cov chaw tsim khoom txuas ntxiv ua tus thawj coj thiab yeej cov xaj los ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom lag luam, es tsis yog tsuas yog qeeb qeeb kev tsim khoom kom sib npaug ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov, peb yuav pom cov nyiaj tau los poob qis ntxiv mus tom ntej."
Tom qab poob 22 xees mus rau 25 xees ib phaus thaum Lub Yim Hli, cov nqi polystyrene poob 11 xees ib phaus thaum Lub Cuaj Hli, nrog rau PCW's Barry thiab RTi's Chesshire xav tias yuav poob ntxiv rau Lub Kaum Hli thiab ib hlis xwb. Tus tom kawg tau hais tias PS poob rau Lub Cuaj Hli tsawg dua li 14c/lb poob ntawm cov nqi raw khoom, thiab taw qhia rau kev qeeb qeeb ntawm kev thov thiab cov nqi raw khoom qis dua txhawb nqa kev poob ntxiv, txwv tsis pub muaj kev cuam tshuam loj ntawm kev tsim khoom.
Barry los ntawm PCW muaj lub tswv yim zoo sib xws. Tus nqi Polystyrene tau nce 53 xees ib phaus txij li Lub Ob Hlis tab sis poob 36 xees ib phaus thaum pib ntawm lub quarter thib plaub, nws hais. Nws pom qhov muaj peev xwm rau kev txiav ntxiv, sau tseg tias cov neeg muag khoom yuav tsum tau txiav ntxiv kev tsim khoom ntawm styrene monomer thiab polystyrene resin.
Nws kuj tau hais tias thaum cov khoom xa tuaj ntawm cov polystyrene resin feem ntau yog li ntawm 5% ntawm cov khoom muaj, cov khoom xa tuaj ntawm cov polystyrene resin uas muaj nqi zoo dua los ntawm Asia tau tsiv mus rau thaj chaw no ntawm lub ntiaj teb, feem ntau yog mus rau Latin America, vim tias tus nqi thauj khoom tam sim no qis dua. "Seb qhov no puas yuav yog teeb meem rau cov neeg muab khoom polystyrene North American tseem yuav tsum tau pom," nws hais.
Raws li Mark Kallman, RTi tus lwm thawj coj ntawm PVC thiab engineering resins, thiab Donna Todd, tus kws kho xov xwm laus ntawm PCW, PVC tus nqi poob 5 xees ib phaus thaum Lub Yim Hli thiab lwm 5 xees ib phaus thaum Lub Cuaj Hli, ua rau tag nrho poob rau 15 xees ib phaus. hauv peb lub hlis twg. . Kalman tuaj yeem pom qhov poob zoo sib xws hauv Lub Kaum Hli thiab lub hlis no. Cov yam tseem ceeb suav nrog kev qeeb qeeb ntawm kev thov txij li Lub Tsib Hlis, kev muab khoom ntau hauv kev ua lag luam thiab kev sib kis loj ntawm cov nqi xa tawm thiab hauv tsev.
PCW tus Todd tau hais tias qhov kev poob qis ntawm cov nqi hauv lub sijhawm luv luv no yog qhov tsis tau muaj dua hauv kev lag luam PVC, thiab ntau tus neeg koom nrog kev lag luam tau cia siab tias cov nqi PVC yuav tsis poob rau hauv peb lub hlis thawj zaug ntawm xyoo 2023, raws li tsawg kawg ib tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam tau kwv yees. . . . Thaum ntxov Lub Kaum Hli, nws tau tshaj tawm tias "Txawm hais tias cov neeg ua cov yeeb nkab PVC xav pom cov nqi resin qis dua, cov nqi PVC poob zoo li lub tsheb ciav hlau thauj khoom khiav ceev yuav ua rau lawv raug nqi nyiaj vim tias cov nqi resin tsav cov nqi yeeb nkab poob qis. Hauv qee kis, cov nqi yeeb nkab raug txo qis. poob sai dua li cov nqi resin. Cov neeg siv khoom rov ua dua hauv lwm lub khw, xws li siding thiab pem teb, nyob rau sab tod ntawm qhov sib npaug vim tias cov khw no tsis tuaj yeem xa tag nrho cov nqi resin nce mus rau lawv cov neeg siv khoom. Lawv zoo siab uas pom cov nqi poob sai li sai tau, yog li rov qab lawv txoj kev lag luam mus rau qee qib ntawm kev ua lag luam.
Tus nqi PET poob 2 xees mus rau 3 xees/lb thaum lub Cuaj Hli tom qab poob 20 xees/lb thaum Lub Xya Hli-Lub Yim Hli, tag nrho vim yog tus nqi khoom siv raw poob qis. RTi's Cullman xav tias tus nqi yuav poob ntxiv 2-3 xees ib phaus thaum Lub Kaum Hli, nrog rau tus nqi tsis hloov pauv lossis qis dua me ntsis thaum lub hli. Kev thov tseem zoo heev, tab sis kev ua lag luam hauv tsev tau muab khoom zoo thiab kev xa khoom mus txuas ntxiv mus ntawm tus nqi zoo, nws hais.
Cov yam tseem ceeb suav nrog kev thov khoom hauv tsev thiab / lossis xa tawm ntau, cov khoom lag luam tsawg thiab cov nqi khoom siv raw siab dua vim muaj kev cuam tshuam kev tsim khoom.